Northern,WI  9/17/2012 (BasicsMedia)  —  Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL):  I am a Non-Believer at $700 and when I hear media talking heads saying it’s OK to buy Apple at any price is silly.  Apple started 2012 at $400 p/s and is up 75% for the year after moving 25% higher in 2011.  I cannot see this stock rallying to $1000 without some pullback.  This reminds me of RIMM in 2004 when shares moved from $14 to $132 and every HedgeFund in the world had to have it in the portfolio.

I am a non-believer becuase I think the shares are driven by product release and currently you have a perfect storm regarding the court case against Samsung, the incredible dmeand for the iPhone 5 and a seemingly unbreakable execution machine.  Things do not stay perfect forever.  Also  Shares of Apple closed at $378.30 on Oct. 5, 2011, the day company  co-founder Steve Jobs died, an event that pessimists thought might spell  serious trouble for Apple’s products and its stock. So far, that’s not  happened. Shares are up nearly 84% since then, according to FactSet  data, and as noted, the goods keep coming and getting bought by us.


I see a pullback to the $600 level once we sort through the product launch and will still post a respectable +50% for 2012 for most investors.  Investors will have a tougher time making money in 2013 if they own shares with a $700 on it.  It’s diffiuclt to hold something in your portfolio if you are down 10 -15% and bought the highs.  I know this from experience.  Also, when Apple breaks down it falls hard and fast scaring the crap out of anyone who owns shares.


I find it interesting that the media has been so forgiving with Apple?  It makes sense when an analyst touts it becuase he gets paid to do that…but there seems to be little objectivity when it comes to the blogworld and the morass of tech blogs covering every move.  Apple is not a perfect phone by any means.  I use the Samsung Galaxy 2 and the Android Mobile OS because I did not want to be with the crowd and wanted to stay tru to something other than MAC OS or Apple products.  The iPhones have flaws like any technology and consumers will start to look for similar features at lower prices, AAPL cannot control pricing is not possible.  I think the perfect storm is totally baked in to Apple at the current %700 p/s prices.


Disclaimer:  We have no position in any stock mentioned here and we certainly do not intend to buy Apple.  Nor are we paid by anyone to write

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